The Corona pandemic has shown how difficult it is to manage global crises in the complex systems of human societies. This is because disruptions in one sector often lead to cascading problems in other sectors. Consider, for example, the current supply bottlenecks for semiconductor components or the high energy prices. Like Covid-19, the effects of climate change and inadequate management of it can disrupt societies at many different levels - from trade and finance to mobility and communication networks. In the process, it is usually the weakest who are hit the hardest. Ilona Otto, Professor of Societal Impacts of Climate Change and Postdoctoral Researcher Andrew Ringsmuth from the Wegener Center at the University of Graz explain in an article in the scientific journal, Climate Risk Management what we can learn from the pandemic to cope with the climate crisis.
"It is of crucial importance to build social and ecological resilience in order to be well prepared for the consequences of climate change," the researchers emphasise. They understand resilience as more than the ability to survive and recover from problems, but rather as a process of change towards a behaviour or system that is better adapted to its circumstances. "A resilient community in a skiing area might for a while cope with reduced snowfalls by creating artificial snow and persisting as a ski resort but, eventually, after enough bad seasons, change their business focus to other things like summer sports or different industries," Ringsmuth explains with an example.
Helpful for this is a global system for monitoring climate impacts and for open data exchange. Because climate change knows neither sectoral nor national boundaries. "Only if far-reaching interactions and possible chain reactions are recognised can successful adaptation measures be developed," the authors say. Nevertheless, uncertainties will remain in the prediction of climate impacts. "Therefore, it is important to develop risk management strategies that can react flexibly to changes," the researchers emphasise.
Complex, systemic risks pose a particular challenge due to the numerous influencing factors and different actors. The scientists are convinced that "in order to be able to jointly develop solutions that can be implemented in a timely manner, measures to promote resilience must offer incentives to all those involved". And reducing economic and other social inequalities and investing in structures to support the most vulnerable groups would also increase resilience at many levels.
The pandemic with its lockdowns has shown that it is possible to reduce CO2 emissions quickly and on a large scale, as would be necessary to limit climate change within the goals of the Paris Agreement. None of the policy or technology efforts so far have come close to doing so. "The idea that we might need to slow down our economy to address the climate crisis is uncomfortable, but we are now at a point where we need to be open to drastic action. The time for half measures is over. We need a profound system change," says Ringsmuth. How we could shape this to ensure people are still able to lead comfortable and fulfilling lives is a subject of current research.
