zum Thema: Highly competitive photovoltaic electricity:New opportunities and challenges for economics,politics and climate mitigation
Zeit: Dienstag 24. März 2015, 12:00 Uhr (s.t.)
Ort: SR des Wegener Center im 1. Stock, Brandhofgasse 5
Moderation: Prof. Karl Steininger
Herzlich willkommen!
Abstract:
In two tenders that won in 2014 in Austin/Texas and in the United Arab Republic, electricity from photovoltaics came out markedly cheaper than any other source, including natural gas, coal or nuclear. Costs are at $Cent 5/kWh. Costs of PV will decrease by another 50% until 2020 with already existing technology. PV has now grown by 40%/year for 38 years, i.e. by a factor of 500,000. Hence, almost all estimates concerning growth and costs of PV have consistently been wrong. For example, the International Energy Agency, Paris, has in 2014 published its most recent estimate for electricity costs from PV of $Cent 5/kWh in 2050, i.e. those costs that were achieved in 2014, not 2050. Now in 2015, the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems is calling for a "fundamental review" of energy policies and of decarbonization strategies.
At these costs, PV could become the major source of for 90% of the total global energy demand, not just electricity. In the extreme, for total global energy supply, PV would need just 8 more doublings after the 19 it already has achieved. Rapid growth is likely at least until the early 2020s, i.e. by a factor of 32-64, given its very high competitiveness. This growth would then end due to the intermittency of solar energy. Battery storage could soften this intermittency but is far too expensive. However, batteries have also been getting cheaper for 25 years, at 7% to 8% annually. Technology roadmaps give costs for batteries in the early 2020s that would allow costs for dispatchable solar electricity of about $Cent 3/kWh if global electricity grids deal with winters on both hemispheres. Such grids have become economic with the new ultra-high voltage DC cables; these also develop very rapidly. This interplay of three exponential technologies, PV, batteries and DC cables, masks the dramatic development in the energy sphere.
Necessary is research and a fundamental review directed towards emerging, encompassing, possibilities and challenges for economic development, climate mitigation and general politics. This is to be discussed.